Topic

Causal Inference

All digests tagged Causal Inference

Between the Layers– Interpreting Large Language Models - Michelle Frost - NDC Toronto 2026 thumbnail

· 56:48

Between the Layers– Interpreting Large Language Models - Michelle Frost - NDC Toronto 2026

This talk provides a deep dive into AI Interpretability, arguing that for Large Language Models (LLMs) to achieve reliability and trust, we must move beyond external explanations (explainability) and understand the internal mechanisms (interpretability). The speaker outlines advanced research—particularly Anthropic's work on mechanistic interpretability—that focuses on decomposing model activations into sparse, single-meaning features. This shift allows engineers to treat LLMs not as black boxes, but as auditable systems that can be tested, monitored, and debugged at the circuit level.

Key takeaways

  1. Interpretability vs. Explainability 1:48

    Interpretability is the 'inside view' (understanding which internal parts wrote the answer), while explainability is the 'outside view' (a human-readable reason for the output). Mechanistic evidence comes from ablating suspected units and observing predictable behavior changes, whereas a salency map or local surrogate provides an account.

  2. The Need for Operational Trust 3:50

    To build trust in LLMs, we must make concepts like truthfulness and calibration operational. This requires understanding the model's internal mechanisms to ensure consistency (robustness) and prevent unsafe answers or agreement bias (syncopancy).

  3. The Interpretability Litmus Test 5:20

    A system should achieve 'understanding' if it can be able to: Name the units, Test their causal importance, Predict counterfactual failures (e.g., misinformation), Instrument them in production, and allow another engineer to Reproduce findings.

  4. Modern Mechanistic Approaches 9:20

    Advanced research uses tools like Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) and overcomplete dictionaries to decompose model activations into 'features'—internal signals that track a single concept (monosemanticity). This allows for the mapping of complex behaviors to specific, nameable circuits.

  5. The Evolution of AI Safety 11:20

    Interpretability is presented as 'ethical infrastructure.' By understanding internal mechanisms (e.g., default circuits that trigger refusals), we can move from simply measuring outputs to actively debugging and governing the system's behavior.

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Causal Models Need Causal Data - Xaira’s X-Cell model (Bo Wang & Ci Chu) thumbnail

· 1:29:47

Causal Models Need Causal Data - Xaira’s X-Cell model (Bo Wang & Ci Chu)

Xaira Therapeutics introduced X-Cell, a novel 4.9-billion-parameter diffusion language model designed as a virtual cell foundation model of biology. The model is trained on X-Atlas/Pisces—a massive dataset spanning 25.6 million single cells across 16 biological contexts and generated via the Perturb-seq platform. The core breakthrough lies in shifting from descriptive (observational) data to causal (interventional) data, allowing the model to predict how a cell will respond to genetic perturbations it has never encountered. This capability is crucial for advancing drug discovery by moving beyond trial-and-error methods.

Key takeaways

  1. Causality vs. Correlation in Biology 20:07

    Observational atlases (descriptive data) can describe biology, but they are fundamentally underpowered to learn causality. To predict the outcome of an intervention (e.g., knocking down a gene), causal data—generated through high-throughput perturbation screens—is required.

  2. X-Cell Architecture and Training 1:03:27

    X-Cell utilizes a diffusion language model approach, which treats gene expression prediction as an iterative 'editing' process rather than an autoregressive one. This architecture allows it to generate high-dimensional transcriptomic data by refining noisy representations until they minimize loss against the ground truth.

  3. Data Generation Scale and Engineering 1:16:47

    The model is powered by Perturb-seq, a technique combining high-throughput CRISPR perturbation with single-cell RNA sequencing. This process generates massive 2D datasets (perturbation on one axis, gene expression on the other) across millions of cells while minimizing batch effects.

  4. Generalization and Translational Potential 1:25:07

    X-Cell demonstrated impressive generalization by accurately predicting perturbation responses in active T-cells, even when the model was only trained on resting T-cell data. This suggests the potential to predict novel biology in unseen contexts.

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