Topic

Data Provenance

All digests tagged Data Provenance

What Is AI Model Collapse? Why AI Could Forget Reality thumbnail

· 13:10

What Is AI Model Collapse? Why AI Could Forget Reality

Model collapse describes a degenerative process where AI models are repeatedly trained on synthetic data generated by other AIs. This contamination causes models to gradually lose information about the real-world distribution and rare facts, potentially leading to generic outputs, knowledge loss, and amplified biases. Preventing this requires integrating human feedback, implementing robust data provenance, and utilizing external retrieval systems like RAG.

Key takeaways

  1. Definition of Model Collapse 2:00

    Model collapse occurs when AI models are repeatedly trained on synthetic outputs, causing them to lose information about the real world distribution they were originally trained on. This is likened to making a photocopy of a photocopy.

  2. Stages of Collapse 2:30

    The process involves two stages: Early collapse (forgetting rare events, such as niche scientific concepts) and Late collapse (losing the structure of reality itself, resulting in repetitive, generic outputs).

  3. Causes of Collapse 3:50

    Since AI naturally reproduces high-probability information more often than low-probability information (the 'tails' of the knowledge bell curve), rare or unusual facts are the first to be compressed and forgotten.

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How Kepler Built Verifiable AI for Financial Services — Vinoo Ganesh thumbnail

· 22:30

How Kepler Built Verifiable AI for Financial Services — Vinoo Ganesh

The talk details how Kepler built a verifiable AI system for financial services, addressing the core limitation that Large Language Models (LLMs) are inherently non-deterministic probability machines. To achieve reliable work product—such as DCF models or investment memos—the system must augment the LLM with a deterministic substrate. This architecture enforces three tenets: Atomic Provenance (tracking every number's source), Scope Determinism (separating reasoning from computation), and Reconciliation/Derivation Chains (ensuring numerical accuracy through verifiable steps). The goal is to shift AI's edge from content generation to verifiable, traceable output.

Key takeaways

  1. LLMs are Probability Machines, Not Deterministic Calculators 4:17

    AI models excel at next token prediction (writing) but fail when deterministic accuracy is required, such as arithmetic or pulling specific figures from filings. Using LLMs for verification alone is insufficient because they are non-deterministic.

  2. The Need for Verifiability in Finance 7:07

    In finance, information must be traceable to its source (provenance). The challenge is moving beyond simple citation (an after-the-fact audit) to true deterministic verification of a number's correctness.

  3. The Three Tenets of Verifiable AI 15:26

    Kepler’s platform ensures numerical accuracy through three mechanisms: Atomic Provenance (writing references instead of numbers), Scope Determinism (separating the model's reasoning from deterministic computation), and Reconciliation/Derivation Chains (tracking every step to produce a final number).

  4. AI Must Be Modeled Like a Portfolio Manager (PM) 20:01

    The system must not let the LLM perform computation. Instead, it uses deterministic tools to calculate figures and pull data from structured sources like XBRL or filings, ensuring the model only dictates *what* needs to be computed, not *how*. This is crucial for producing reliable work product.

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